Update: When I talk about recreating pre-WWI Europe I am not just talking about Europe. I am speaking of the alignments and dynamics of the globe. And I said in this piece that all it would take to set off the powder keg is a small incident in a key area, where surrounding players see an opportunity in the chaos. There are some examples in other articles.
BUT!!!!! In my interview with Patricia Degennaro she brought up something I never even considered. The Balkans. There are people in power in that region who were young adults during the late unpleasantness there. And according to Patricia memories remain long and dark. Russia and NATO have divided responsibilities and allegiances there. The Balkans region is now what keeps me up at night. Remember, WWI started with the assassination of a not-overly important royal by a Serb. I hope the NATO is listening to Patricia, in their meetings with her, on this subject!
And Capt. Bartlett will be here on the 28 March, not 7 March.
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Before moving on to the the videos below, I want you to take a good, long look at the picture just below the audio line. That’s the face of then Lt. Robin Bartlett serving with the Air Cav along the DMZ in Vietnam.
Keep looking at the picture. He’s a child; and he’s leading men in battle! He hasn’t lived his life yet. And he’s seen infinitely more shit in his tour in Vietnam than most of us will see in a lifetime. I don’t know about you, but I see my two oldest grandsons, Liam and Aiden, in that picture.
We hear a lot of people screeching lately, for us to arm Ukraine to the teeth. There are people saying we need to defend Taiwan no matter what.
Okay,… I’m inclined to agree with both statements. In terms of our national interests, yes, those statements are both technically correct. But are we prepared to do what is needed to make those commitments stick? Because I have news for you folks, the Russians aren’t going away. And the Chinese think this is their century to do as they please. Are you prepared to deny them that?
Look at the picture again.
To accomplish what the sabre rattlers want in the foreseeable future, YOU need to prepare for what the sacrifices will be. Will a war be worth these sacrifices?
To prepare for potential action in those theaters of conflict we need to enact NOW a national draft or mandatory military service - NOW - not 4 years from now. Or Ukraine and Taiwan are already lost. And YOU need to demand an outline NOW - from your government - a hard explanation of what we will be fighting for. Is Taiwan worth it? Is Ukraine worth it? And victory will have to be defined long beforehand.
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If you hear terms like limited engagement, proportionate response or advisory force, you know these guys aren’t serious. Those are terms for wars of convenience, not wars of necessity. There is nothing patriotic or moral in fighting a pointless war. And that’s all we’ve done for almost 80 years, since the end of WWII.
And arming the hell out of combatants won’t do the trick either. Let’s say China does make a move on Taiwan. Now we’re pumping arms to Asia and Eastern Europe. We can send all the arms we want so long as our friends want to keep on shooting. The weapons industry will make a killing, just like pre-WWI and pre-WWII. But eventually all the smaller players will be up against it. We will have stripped our national treasure for a desired outcome and we won’t get it. Now what? What did we end up doing in 1917 and 1941? Do you see my point? If not, leave a comment. We can kick it around some more.
I believe an argument can be made for drawing lines in the sand. But at the moment, I don’t believe we have the right people at the helm. I am not comfortable with people so enamored with nonsensical trans fads, and philosophies of weakness, and ESG, in the seat of power during a potential run up to conflict.
I still believe that if we really put the screws to Putin - we still haven’t - Ukraine could end very quickly. All the sanctions we imposed on Russia were rolled out in a very slow, comfortable fashion. It allowed Putin plenty of time to create work-arounds to blunt the pain of each inconvenience. We never shut down his ability to finance his operations. And we never hammered the oligarchs hard. And it was all telegraphed to them well in advance.
So Putin got his war. Biden got another shiny object to point to. And we got bilked for billions of dollars. Whether you support Ukraine or not, there is no way to deny that we were shafted for what should have been a non-starter for Putin. It was plainly obvious in the way he crept up to zero hour that he was reading the tea leaves, and quite possibly not believing how easy we were making it for him.
It was around this time we heard Ned Price, State Dept. flack, say the most stupid thing ever uttered by an U.S Government official. Deterrents only work after a country takes steps against our interests. The response to that, of course, is if deterrents are weak and late to the game, then the aggressor is vested and can’t walk away because of sanctions. So sanctions in this case should have been designed to prevent the actual invasion. The line to trigger sanctions should have been drawn at a point PRIOR to the invasion. For example Biden could have said in December start standing down your build-up in the next 24 hours and evacuate your troops (by a date certain) from the border areas, or all sanctions will be immediately imposed including sanctions on your ability to export oil.
That’s what I was referring to when I mentioned Putin’s gradual movement to the Ukraine border and his disbelief at what he was about to get away with.
So, along with allowing Russia to attack a neighbor and watching the ChiComm belligerence in the Pacific, we have created a global atmosphere not unlike pre-WWI Europe.
The citizenry is now discussing the possibility of war. We are starting to develop our own prejudices and attitudes toward potential combatants. These have been helped in no small part by the media and government press releases. This was the atmosphere in Europe from 1900-1914. And things happen a lot faster now.
Left unchecked, or handled stupidly, these things have a way of developing a life of their own. We get caught up in the momentum of bluster for bluster, sleight and counter-sleight, troop movement for troop movement. All the while, the wealth of nations and the credibility of the opposing politicians gets stretched thin. Eventually, even the general public will want to see results for their sacrifice. Weak leaders will make poor decisions to regain their stature.
This was precisely the picture of Europe prior to WWI. It is exactly where we are now. Watching, waiting, almost daring each other to cross some nebulous line.
Then an actor does something no one saw coming. It doesn’t even have to be an important figure, as we saw in 1914. Just a nut bag with an axe to grind or a tiny group of nut bags wanting to be on the world stage. The offended country hits back. Allies take sides. And the international leviathan starts an inexorable roll toward conflagration.
In these times, who will side with whom? Will Vietnam and Thailand and Malaysia side with us? Will Russia join China? What of South America? Or the Saudis? Or India?
But it won’t be the incompetent or impotent politicians doing the fighting. And it won’t be most of the armchair generals holding forth at the dinner table about the dirty commies. It will be our young people who, by the way, are the most unprepared generation ever to face this kind of experience since Rome fell.
This combined with our horrible, present-day intel and military leadership, leaves us in quite a pickle. That was why I mentioned a draft or mando military service. To prevent what seems to be looming we have to appear deadly serious. To defeat the potential adversaries, we have to get big, fast. We also have to immediately do away with faddish infatuations that are wasting valuable time and softening our troops. The last thing any country needs is sensitive soldiers. Leave that to Civil Affairs. A soldier’s job is to shoot, move and eat.
At any rate, the military we have today is NOT prepared for the actions we are presently pondering.
Here’s the good part for me. I don’t have to define the sacrifice required of the people who would be doing the fighting. On 7 March 2023, Capt. Robin Bartlett will be here, on P4B, to define the sacrifice for us. He’s the young man you see in that photo. Happily, he is now no longer a baby face Lieutenant in the US Army. He’s an old war horse, and a better man than me. I had my war, but I never had the dubious honor of being shot at or shooting anyone.
The captain is also an author. We will talk about Capt. Bartlett’s book and his time in combat. We will discuss what you need to do to wrap your heads around the NOW. And the conversation will range in other directions. Anticipate a multi-episode event.
So mark your calendars for 7 March and join us.
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Also in the near future, we’ll have guests discussing finance and home buying, and music. I am working to produce things I think you need to know along with things that are entertaining.
Be sure to watch or listen to the videos below. The videos are just two aspects of the Ukraine argument. FOX and CNN certainly won’t help you here! Both have a warped vision of what we are up against and a very poor forum for gaining in-depth information.
Some quick thoughts on the second video. It is very informative. This, despite the speaker’s strong infatuation with the Biden team, who I believe were doomed to bungle the Ukraine mess - and did. They are all of a naive stripe. And her observations about Trump are wildly simplistic. But you will get a real feel for the conflict in the interview. Also, Putin knew exactly the sanctions that were coming. They had been telegraphed for months prior to the invasion and were scheduled to be strung out from February all the way to December. He even knew which banks would get the pinch, none of them being his money or oil and gas money.
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Be careful what you wish for!